Toluene: East of Sunrise South East Rain, East China market differentiation
Last week, the toluene market showed a clear regional divergence, with East China prices rising while South China continued to decline. In East China, the market gradually climbed over the week, driven by a buildup of short-term selling pressure from the previous period, which helped stabilize prices at lower levels. The closing price at the weekend was between 6,400 and 6,450 yuan per ton, marking an increase of 200 yuan compared to the previous weekend. Meanwhile, in South China, buyers remained cautious due to higher pricing, leading to a downward trend as trading volumes remained weak. The weekend closing price fell to 6,500–6,550 yuan, down 50 yuan from the prior week.
Domestically, most regions saw slight declines in toluene production prices. In East China, the mainstream ex-factory price ranged between 6,000 and 6,100 yuan, with the high end dropping by 100 yuan from the previous week. North China maintained a range of 6,300–6,470 yuan, unchanged from the prior week. Central China saw a reduction of 50–150 yuan, with prices settling between 6,150 and 6,300 yuan. South China’s ex-factory prices dropped by 200 yuan, now ranging from 6,300 to 6,400 yuan. Northeast China’s prices remained steady at 6,000–6,300 yuan, though the lower end decreased by 100 yuan. Western China’s prices stayed flat at 6,000–6,200 yuan.
Looking ahead, the weak demand fundamentals are still in place, and financial pressures toward year-end will likely persist. As more supply enters the market later in the period, the recovery momentum is expected to slow. However, the current tight supply situation continues to support buyer and trader sentiment. Sellers are reluctant to part with inventory, while downstream buyers remain eager to secure supplies, contributing to an active trading environment. If global oil prices and external toluene trends continue to rise, they could provide some support to the domestic market. Nonetheless, upward price movement is likely to be limited given the broader economic conditions.
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