Toluene: East of Sunrise South East Rain, East China market differentiation
Last week saw a clear divergence in the toluene market, with prices in East China rising steadily while South China continued to experience downward pressure. In East China, the market gradually climbed as it recovered from earlier declines, which had released some short-term selling pressure. The price found support at lower levels, and by the end of the weekend, it closed between 6,400 and 6,450 yuan per ton, marking an increase of 200 yuan compared to the previous weekend. On the other hand, the South China market remained under pressure due to buyers' reluctance to pay higher prices. With weak demand and limited trading volume, prices continued to slip. The closing range for the weekend was 6,500–6,550 yuan, down 50 yuan from the prior week.
Domestically, toluene production prices in most regions saw slight declines last week. In East China, the mainstream ex-factory price ranged between 6,000 and 6,100 yuan, with the high end dropping by 100 yuan from the previous week. In North China, prices stayed steady at 6,300–6,470 yuan. Central China saw a reduction of 50–150 yuan, with the range now at 6,150–6,300 yuan. In South China, the ex-factory price fell by 200 yuan to 6,300–6,400 yuan. In the Northeast, prices were between 6,000–6,300 yuan, with the lower end down by 100 yuan. Meanwhile, in Southwest China, the price remained stable at 6,000–6,200 yuan.
Looking ahead, the fundamental weakness in demand remains unchanged, and financial pressures toward year-end are expected to persist. As more supply enters the market, the upward momentum may gradually weaken. However, the current tight supply situation continues to support buyer and trader sentiment. Sellers are reluctant to part with inventory, while downstream buyers remain eager to secure supplies, contributing to an active trading environment. If global oil prices and external toluene trends continue to rise, they could still provide some support to the domestic market. Nevertheless, the potential for further price increases is likely to be limited.
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