Petrochemical market prices steadily decline
According to a report from the Information Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, China’s oil and chemical industry maintained strong growth in July, driven by sectors such as light industry, construction materials, and automotive manufacturing. Production and sales both increased, with exports showing robust performance. Meanwhile, prices continued to decline across most segments.
In terms of production value, the industry reached 436.55 billion yuan in July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. Sales totaled 432.23 billion yuan, up 18.5% compared to the same period last year. The petroleum and natural gas sector saw sales of 68 billion yuan, remaining largely stable compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, refined petroleum sales rose by 12.9%, and chemical sales surged by 28.2%. The overall sales rate for the industry was 99.01%, an improvement of 1.11 percentage points year-on-year. Export value reached 30.59 billion yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year, with over 80% of key products seeing output growth.
Of the 65 tracked products, 56 saw monthly production increases, accounting for 86.2%, while 41 products had growth exceeding 10%, representing 63.1%. Natural gas, synthetic rubber, and rubber products were among the fastest-growing categories.
Despite the overall positive trend, the domestic chemical market experienced a slight downward trend. Out of 151 tracked chemical products, 39.7% saw price increases, while 45.7% declined month-on-month. Although export tax rebate adjustments began to take effect, the impact on exports was limited due to pre-scheduled international orders and high global chemical prices. Domestic costs related to energy, resources, and environmental protection remained a key factor supporting prices. Some products also benefited from rising raw material costs.
Caustic soda faced challenges after the full cancellation of export tax rebates, leading to restricted downstream exports. Additionally, heavy rains in southern regions, weak demand, and transportation disruptions contributed to a continued decline in prices. By July, caustic soda fell to 560 yuan, down 8.2% from the previous month.
Soda ash, despite similar tax changes, saw higher export prices due to tight international supply, with prices rising by 18–23 U.S. dollars. Domestically, soda ash prices remained high at 1,630 yuan, up 1.2% from the previous month.
Calcium carbide prices rose sharply due to national regulatory efforts, reaching 2,800 yuan in July, a 4.5% quarterly increase and 18.1% year-on-year. International sulfur prices also climbed, pushing up sulfuric acid prices. In July, sulfuric acid averaged 550 yuan, up 3.8% from the prior month and 10% year-on-year.
Organic chemical raw materials showed a weak trend, with traders adopting a bearish outlook due to reduced export tax rebates. While supply remained stable and growing, market demand was weaker. Of the 71 tracked products, 62% saw price declines from the previous month. Benzene-based products like toluene and xylene rebounded, while alcohols such as methanol and ethanol continued to fall.
Domestic methanol prices dropped further in July, averaging 2,500 yuan, a 2.7% decrease from the previous month. This was partly due to low international prices and a slowdown in early export momentum, alongside increased imports and domestic production.
The fertilizer market remained stable, with urea facing oversupply and falling prices. The average urea price in July was 1,770 yuan, down 1.1% from the previous month and 3.8% from the same period last year. Despite high export tariffs, companies still expanded exports, leading to a significant increase in export volume.
Diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate saw slight price increases due to high international prices and rising production costs. Potassium chloride prices slightly declined domestically but rose slightly when imported.
Natural rubber prices continued to fall, with SCR5 dropping to 18,400 yuan, a 1.3% monthly decrease and 25.1% annual drop. However, synthetic rubber prices rebounded, with styrene butadiene rubber, butadiene rubber, and nitrile rubber all seeing gains.
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