Petrochemical market prices steadily decline
According to a recent report from the Information Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, July saw continued growth in China's oil and chemical industry, driven by strong demand in light industry, construction materials, and automotive sectors. The sector maintained a positive development trend, with production and sales both rising steadily. Export volumes grew significantly, while prices remained relatively stable.
In terms of performance, the industry's current output value reached 436.55 billion yuan in July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. Sales totaled 432.23 billion yuan, up 18.5% compared to the same period last year. Petroleum and natural gas sales stood at 68 billion yuan, nearly matching the previous year's figures. Oil refining sales rose 12.9% to 128.35 billion yuan, while chemical sales increased by 28.2% to 228.3 billion yuan. The overall industry sales rate was 99.01%, up 1.11 percentage points year-on-year. The oil and gas sales rate was 97.68%, down slightly, while oil refining hit 101.5%, and the chemical industry reached 98.14%.
Exports for the entire industry amounted to 30.59 billion yuan, a 22.8% increase year-on-year. Key product output rose by over 80%, with 56 out of 65 tracked products seeing monthly increases—accounting for 86.2% of the total. Forty-one products recorded growth of more than 10%, making up 63.1% of the total. Natural gas, synthetic rubber, and rubber products experienced particularly strong growth.
Domestically, the chemical market showed a slight downward trend, with 39.7% of 151 tracked products seeing price increases and 45.7% experiencing declines month-on-month. Despite export tax rebate adjustments, the impact on exports was limited due to pre-scheduled foreign orders and high international prices. Domestic energy costs, resource scarcity, and environmental regulations continue to support pricing stability. Some products also saw price increases due to rising raw material costs.
Caustic soda faced challenges after the full cancellation of export tax rebates, leading to restricted downstream processing. Heavy rains in southern regions, weak demand, and transportation disruptions caused its price to drop to 560 yuan in July, a decrease of 8.2% from the previous month. Soda ash, despite similar tax changes, saw higher international prices, with export prices rising by 18–23 U.S. dollars. Domestic demand shortages kept prices high, averaging 1,630 yuan in July, up 1.2% from the previous month.
Calcium carbide prices surged due to national regulatory measures, reaching 2,800 yuan in July—a 4.5% quarterly increase and 18.1% year-on-year. International sulfur supply tightened, pushing prices up from $160–170 to $180–200 per ton, which in turn boosted sulfuric acid prices. In July, the average sulfuric acid price in China hit 550 yuan, up 3.8% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year.
Organic chemical raw materials showed a weak trend as traders became cautious following reduced export tax rebates. With stable supply and growing output, the market remained weak. Of the 71 tracked products, 62% saw price declines. Benzene-based products like toluene and xylene rebounded, while alcohols such as methanol and ethanol fell. Methanol prices dropped to an average of 2,500 yuan, down 2.7% from the previous month, driven by low international prices and increased imports.
The fertilizer market remained stable. Urea prices continued to fall due to oversupply, averaging 1,770 yuan in July, down 1.1% from June and 3.8% from the same period last year. Despite high export tariffs, companies still expanded exports, leading to a significant increase in export volume. Diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate prices rose slightly due to high international prices and increased production costs. Potassium chloride prices remained stable, with domestic prices at 1,995 yuan and import prices at 2,210 yuan.
Natural rubber prices declined further due to new plastic competition and increased supply, with SCR5 dropping to 18,400 yuan in July—a 1.3% monthly decline and 25.1% year-on-year. However, synthetic rubber prices rebounded, with styrene butadiene rubber, butadiene rubber, and nitrile rubber all seeing price increases.
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