· How big can the shared bicycle market be? The price war is about to come out

Because it can alleviate traffic congestion and solve the "last mile" travel problem, since last autumn, shared bicycles have sprung up in the streets of Beijing, and the "small yellow car" and "small orange" in the subway station The car once became a beautiful landscape in the capital. Last week, a number of shared bicycle brands appeared on the streets of Beijing. According to incomplete statistics, as of this week, the shared bicycle brands that have entered the Beijing market have been owned by ofo, Mobai, Xiaolan, Yonganxing, Cool Ride, and you and Haidian.
As more and more shared bicycles are placed on the streets, the sharing of bicycle wars seems to have become a stack battle for various companies in popular areas and subway stations.
In the hot spot, there is nowhere to park bicycles. Last night, under the Guomao Bridge, the shared bicycles were discharged on the sidewalk on the south side of Jianguo Road. According to the reporter's observation, this car flow from the Guomao Bridge, the farthest extended to the door of Langjiayuan World Trade Center, the length is close to 600 meters, although the middle is mixed with electric motorcycles and some ordinary bicycles, but the shared bicycle still occupies most of the space. . Among them, some bicycles were parked on the green belt beside the sidewalk because they were nowhere to park, and some were parked in the canopy of the bus station. In SOHO Modern City, some of the shared bicycles were parked at the corner of the non-motorized vehicle lane as the trail was already full. In front of the Dongsanlitun community on the east side of Sanlitun Taikoo Li, there are three layers of shared bicycles on the nearly 100-meter-long pedestrian walkway. Pedestrians can only walk through the gap of two or three meters wide.
Despite this, the new battlefield is still actively launched. Outside the subway Peony Garden Station, the blue-and-yellow Yongan bicycles are placed neatly on the pedestrian trails. According to the reporter's observation, the number of bicycles is around 50; the dark green cool bicycles are positioned in Tongzhou. In Shunyi City, about 30,000 bicycles have been put into the two districts; the small blue bicycles with the main comfort are appearing in some prosperous streets in Chaoyang District and Dongcheng District.
What is the current number of shared bicycles? At the end of January, General Manager Xing Lin of Mobai Beijing revealed to reporters that the total number of smart shared bicycles operated by Mobai in the Beijing area has exceeded 100,000. According to observations, the number of ono on the street is not lost to Moby. Based on this calculation, only the number of bicycles that the two shared bicycle companies put in Beijing is more than 200,000.
Market demand for bicycles In the industry, what is the demand for 1 million shared bicycles? According to Li Gang, CEO of Xiaolan Bicycle, the current number of shared bicycles is not saturated in terms of the current situation of first-tier cities like Beijing. “There is a rough algorithm for market capacity, which means that every 20 to 30 people need a shared bicycle.” According to Li Gang’s calculation, Beijing will need 700,000 to 1 million shared bicycles.
Li Gang believes: "Even if a brand has 100,000 units in Beijing, it does not prevent another brand from reaching 10 to 150,000 units in the near future. I believe that the density should be within half a year. There is no difference between the speed and the slowness of the delivery, and there is no essential difference. Only when the density reaches a certain level, the product will become the deciding factor for the user to make a choice."
However, another shared bicycle practitioner believes that it is relatively simple to calculate how many bicycles a city needs based on the population. This is not the case, so it is impossible to answer how many shared bicycles a city has to count as saturated.
It is worth noting that, from the perspective of the density of bicycle launches, the bicycles of theo and Mobai are now widely visible in some of the main streets in Beijing. Many users have already paid a deposit of 99 yuan and 299 yuan, and when these vehicles are not lacking, it is very difficult for the latecomers to register an account.
Competition price wars are about to start, but newcomers to the battlefield are very optimistic about their latecomer advantage. A shared bicycle practitioner told reporters that the users in this industry are not as sticky as everyone imagined. In the case of similar prices and sufficient vehicles, there are better rides, more comfortable and cheaper options. Many people Will immediately shift the position, so the sharing of bicycles in the early stage competition may be speed, but the real competition is still the user experience.
Among the new competitors entering the Beijing market, the small blue bicycles are mainly called "safe and good riding", which is said to be equipped with "comfort four-piece", handles, cushions, seat tube and pedals. The weight of the car is 15 kg; Yongan line does not need Pay the deposit, the user can rent a car as long as the sesame score reaches 600, the car lock can not only scan the code or enter the password to unlock, but also can find the car through the mobile phone Bluetooth unlock.
As the competition for shared bicycles entered the white-hot stage, the two giants, Moby Bike and Ofo, could not sit still, and first played a “price war”.
Ino's own university base, Beijing's college market, launched a "9 9-semester semester" promotion for campus users, and college students can use theo bicycles unlimitedly before July 31 this year, as long as they pay 9.9 yuan. Not limited to on-campus off-campus. According to some ofo "hardcore powder", ofo will usually release coupons in WeChat group and various forums, and sometimes even one is not used up, the second one will come. At the same time, ofo also started the process of converting from a password lock to a smart lock. It is understood that the new ofo smart lock has the characteristics of variable password, no need to charge for two years in standby, automatic deduction after locking, and solves the stability of unlocking in low temperature environment. At present, some parts of Haidian can already ride the ofo bicycles with smart locks. According to the plan, ofo will gradually replace the mechanical lock in the old car with a new smart lock.
Last weekend, Moby and ofo tacitly announced the free use of three days, and the number of cycling riders on the streets soared. Under the Haidian Sitong Bridge, a traffic light came down, and more than ten people were riding bicycles of different brands to stop at the intersection.
Prospective bicycle companies can expand their homes in the Beijing market, and they can gather users in a short period of time, and the model is easy to copy and promote. While the pioneers of shared bicycles and the giants fought in the first and second-tier cities and expanded their territory, some companies aimed at the third- and fourth-tier markets and avoided the confrontation.
Newly-entered cool-riding bicycles include Beijing, Tianjin, Changsha, Xi'an, Taiyuan, Shijiazhuang, Zhengzhou and other places, most of which are third-tier cities. In Beijing, it has also selectively avoided the area where bicycles are concentrated, but chose to place them in Tongzhou and Shunyi.
The cool biker’s staff made a metaphor to the reporter. In the 100-meter race, the lead of 10 meters and 20 meters is a very obvious gap, but in the 10,000-meter long run, such a lead is not so obvious, so if the country as a whole market, there is no absolute lead in the industry. By.
However, for the cool ride, this road to a small city is not good. According to reports, less than a month after the launch of Yantai, Cool Ride was forced to rush to withdraw the bicycles already placed. The explanation given by the relevant departments of Yantai City is that this kind of occupational business of Cool Cycling violates the relevant regulations of the state and does not carry out any approval, which is a violation.
The battle for shared bicycles has also extended to overseas. After the US Silicon Valley and London, UK operations, at the end of February, ofo officially announced that it was put into operation in Singapore, and has already launched 1,000 bicycles in different regions. During the trial period, the user can use the bicycle for free without paying a deposit. The person in charge of the Singapore operation said that theo has been supported by the local land transport authority and will be launching more shared bicycles in more regions in the future.
Compared with domestic, shared bicycle companies may test the ability of enterprises to deal with local governments in the process of going global. A shared bicycle operator who has tried to test the overseas market told reporters that foreign markets are more inclined to adopt the attitude of “first management and then delivery” compared with the domestic “first post-administration” approach. Before the company puts a bicycle, it must submit the operation plan, the delivery plan and even the detailed information of the vehicle configuration to the local government. Therefore, from the management point of view, it has undoubtedly set a threshold for some bicycle companies.

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